Greenland Ice Sheet Contribution to Future Global Sea Level Rise based on CMIP5 Models  

作　　者：YAN Qing WANG Huijun Ola M.JOHANNESSEN ZHANG Zhongshi 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [3]University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [4]Climate Change Research Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences [5]Nansen Scientific Society [6]Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research,Uni Research

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2014年第1期8-16,共9页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：funded by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2010CB950102 and 2009CB421406);the Nansen Scientific Society(Norway);part of the SeaLev projects at the Centre of Climate Dynamics/Bjerknes Center in Bergen

摘　　要：Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.

关 键 词：sea level rise Greenland ice sheet ice sheet modeling model evaluation 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学] TP311[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]