水文学与水力学方法在淮河中游的应用研究  

Study on hydrology and hydraulic methods applied to the middle Huai River basin

作　　者：刘开磊[1] 李致家[1] 姚成[1] 阚光远[1] 常露[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2013年第6期5-10,共6页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179045;41101017;41130639);国家博士点基金资助项目(20090094110005);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006037);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2010B00114)

摘　　要：淮河中游行蓄洪区运用频繁,该流域的洪水预报调度是一个十分复杂的问题。文中对流域的行蓄洪状况进行合理概化处理,取得了较好的预报效果。常见的洪水演进方法有水文学方法(如马斯京根法)以及水力学方法(如差分求解一维圣维南方程组的方法)。在比较分析两种方法在该流域的应用效果后,认为两种方法都能较好模拟流域水流状态,水力学方法的适用性更好。采用基于K-最近邻(KNN)的实时校正方法,并与反馈模拟实时校正方法进行比较,结果表明,KNN方法能够在较长的预见期内保持良好的预报精度,更适用于洪水预报的实时校正。Flood forecasting in the Huai River basin that frequently uses its flood diversion and storage areas is always an important and complex task of flood dispatching. This paper presents a new generalization of these areas to improve forecasting results. Generally there are two methods of flood routing： hydrology method such as Muskingum method, and hydraulic method such as solving Saint-Venant equations. Application to this basin shows that both methods produce good predictions, but the latter is more suitable. The K-nearest neighbor （KNN） method is more accurate in the cases of long forecast period, in comparison with the real- time correction method of feedback simulation.

关 键 词：水文学 马斯京根法 行蓄洪 分洪流量 实时校正 KNN 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]