同频率法设计降雨过程的安全裕度  

Safety margin for design hyetograph calculated by same-frequency amplification method

作　　者：杨星 李志清 李朝方 陈文猛 刘志龙 

机构地区：[1]江苏省水利科学研究院,南京210017 [2]深圳市水务规划设计院,广东深圳518001

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2013年第6期19-23,42,共6页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：水利部公益性项目(201001070);深圳市水务发展中长期战略研究项目(SZCG2010021725)

摘　　要：设计降雨过程是水利工程水文分析的核心内容和重要组成部分,而同频率放大法是我国主要的降雨过程设计方法,这种方法尚缺乏量化的安全性论证。为此,基于概率理论,提出设计降雨过程安全裕度的概念并推导出其计算方法,然后以深圳市实测降雨资料(1969年-2002年)为分析对象,通过安全裕度的分析,获得了其不同重现期下同频率放大法设计降雨过程的安全裕度。结果显示:①同频率放大法设计的降雨过程具有一定的安全裕度;②用安全裕度评估设计降雨过程的安全性具有量化、意义明确等优点,有一定的应用价值。Design hyetograph is a key factor crucial to hydrological analysis, and for its calculation, samefrequency amplification method is the primary method used in China but lacking quantitative verification. This paper describs a basic conception and calculation method for the safety margin of design hyetograph. This margin was analyzed by probability theory for different return periods using the rainfall data in Shenzhen from 1969 to 2002 in a case study. In conclusion, the new method provides a design with certain level of reliability, and the safety margin for design hyetograph, as a safety evaluation indicator that has a clear physical meaning, is practically useful.

关 键 词：水文学 设计降雨过程 安全裕度 同频率放大法 重现期 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]