低碳经济下中国工业行业CO2排放变化、驱动因素及其减排对策研究——基于1991～2010年面板数据的分析  

Chinese Industrial CO2 Emissions Change, Driving Factors and Emission Reduction Measures in Low-Carbon Economy——Based on Analysis of 1991 ～2010 Panel-data

作　　者：张宏武[1] 时临云[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学经济学院,天津300134 [2]天津商业大学商学院,天津300134

出　　处：《软科学》2013年第12期114-119,共6页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(12BJY062);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(11YJA790205)

摘　　要：对1991～2010年中国工业行业CO2排放量进行测算,结果表明：年均增长较快的是能源加工、有色金属、钢铁和电力煤气等基础原材料行业,钢铁、化学和建材业则是CO2排放的主要行业;在影响中国工业行业CO2排放的诸因素中,经济规模是最大的增排驱动因素,能源效率和经济效率是两个较大的减排驱动因素,而能源转换在诸影响因素中驱动力最小且各行业的驱动方向差别较大,只有电力煤气、矿业和能源加工等属于减排驱动;中国CO2减排对策至少可以从能源转换、能源效率、经济效率、经济规模等方面来着手进行.This paper calculates the result shows that China~ industrial CO2 emission is in a rising trend from 1991 to 2010. Raw material processing industries like energy processing, non-ferrous metal, steel, electricity and gas are of more rapid annual CO2 emission growth with steel, chemicals and building materials industries being the chief contributors to CO2 emissions. Among all the factors affecting China＇s industrial CO2 emission growth, the economic scale factor is the most important one with the energy efficiency and commercial efficiency being the most influential factors in CO2 emissions decrease. However, the energy conversion factor, among all influencing factors, has the smallest driving force and the driving direction difference between various industries is quite obvious, only electricity, gas, mining and energy processing are emission reduction driving.

关 键 词：中国工业行业 CO2排放 因素分解 低碳经济 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济] F205