基于最优组合赋权法的我国能源效率评价及影响因素研究  

Research on Evaluation of Energy Efficiency and Influence Factors in China Based on Optimal Combination Weights

作　　者：孟凡生[1] 李美莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2013年第6期153-160,共8页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71072075);国家软科学项目(2010GXQ5D328);黑龙江社会科学重大决策咨询项目(12G003)

摘　　要：本文总结我国能源效率的主要影响因素，具体包括产业结构、技术进步、能源消费结构、经济发展水平、市场化程度和开放程度，构建我国能源效率影响因素的指标体系。基于最优组合赋权法建立能源效率评价模型，并对2000～2011年我国能源效率及影响因素进行实证分析。实证结果表明：我国能源效率整体呈上升趋势，能源效率显著提高；第二产业产值占国内生产总值比重、重工业占工业产值比重、第二产业增长值比重、R＆D投入、第三产业产值占国内生产总值比重和煤炭消费量占能源消费总量比重是我国能源效率最主要的影响指标，而天然气消费量占能源消费总量比重和水、核、风消费量占能源消费总量比重对我国能源效率影响相对较小。The paper summarizes the main influence factors of energy efficiency in China , including industrial structure , technological progress , energy consumption structure , economic development level , market degree and opening degree , constructs index system of energy efficiency influence factors in China .Then, establishes energy efficiency evaluation model based on Optimal Combination Weights and analyses the energy efficiency and influ -ence factors from 2000 to 2011 in China as empirical analysis .Empirical results show energy efficiency in China has an upward trend , energy efficiency improves significantly;the proportion of secondary industry output value accounted for GDP , the proportion of heavy industry output value accounted for industrial output value , the proportion of secondary industry growth value , R＆D investment , the proportion of tertiary industry output value accounted for GDP and the proportion of coal consumption accounted for total energy consumption are the main influence indexes of energy efficiency in China , however , the proportion of natural gas consumption accounted for total energy consumption and the proportion of water , nuclear , wind consumption accounted for total energy consumption have relatively little influence on energy efficiency in China .

关 键 词：可持续发展 能源效率 影响因素 最优权重 组合赋权 

分 类 号：N945.16[自然科学总论—系统科学] F206[经济管理—国民经济]