低碳经济范式下能源结构优化程度评价研究  

Research on Optimization Degree Evaluation of Energy Structure Under Low-carbon Economy Paradigm

作　　者：范德成[1] 王韶华[1,2] 张伟[3] 贾立江[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [2]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [3]东北大学秦皇岛分校经贸学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2013年第6期168-176,共9页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20122304110018);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(13YJA630016);中央高校基本业务费专项基金资助(HEUCF130907);黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划项目(11A004);黑龙江省(青年)自然科学基金资助项目(QC2011C076)

摘　　要：我国的能源瓶颈突出表现为结构性矛盾。本文以能源经济学为理论支撑,从低碳经济发展对能源结构要求的角度,提出了社会经济效益、能源规划效益、环境效益等三个维度,并分析了各个维度的构成要素;综合运用粗糙集理论和AHP法进行指标约简和权值计算,构建了低碳经济范式下能源结构优化程度评价指标体系。在此基础上,对各评价指标设置分级标准,通过未确知测度评价模型对2010年我国10个省份的能源结构优化程度进行多指标综合测度与评价,阐明了该评价方法的科学有效性及评价结果的合理性。The structural contradictions are mainly shown as the energy bottleneck in China .Based on theory of energy economics , this paper puts forward three dimensions which are social and economic benefits , energy plan-ning benefits as well as environment benefits , from the perspective of requirements of low-carbon economy to energy structure.Analyzing elements of the various dimensions ,it identifies twelve measurement indexes and the weight of each index by the theory of rough set , combined with AHP,establishing the low-carbon factor.Based on this, it sets the grading standards , and it carries on comprehensive measurement and evaluation of multi-indexes for optimization degree of energy structure by unascertained measure evaluation model for ten provinces . The results show the indexes , including planning of renewable energy , energy efficiency , carbon dioxide and COD, are important to the optimization degree evaluation of energy structure , not the population or the situation of energy supply to demand , and illustrate thet validity of the approach and rationality of the assessment result .

关 键 词：粗糙集 未确知 低碳经济范式 能源结构优化程度 评价 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]