中国钢铁产业技术预测研究——基于专利生命周期分析  

Technology Forecast of China's Steel and Iron Industry: A Life Cycle Analysis on the Patent

作　　者：梁晓捷[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第6期16-19,26,共5页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家知识产权局软科学研究计划项目"知识产权在产业结构调整和转变经济发展方式中的作用调查研究"(SS10-A-01)

摘　　要：应用技术生命周期理论和Logistic模型,借助中国钢铁产业的专利数据对中国钢铁产业的技术创新开展技术预测研究。结果表明:中国钢铁产业专利技术发展将经历四个阶段:第一阶段(1985—2009年)为萌芽期,发展相对较慢;第二阶段(2010—2021年)产业技术进入成长期,专利技术发展速度加快,出现重大发明;第三阶段(2022—2033年)为技术成熟期,以外围专利为主;第四阶段(2033年以后)将进入衰退期,申请减少。依据产业技术生命周期阶段和国内外专利实力对比,提出了中国钢铁产业技术创新的"三步走"策略:突破核心技术,建立专利布局,国际化发展。Based on the patent data of China＇s steel and iron industry, the paper applies the technology life cycle theory and the Logistic model to conduct technology forecast research. The results show that the first stage （1985--2009） is germination stage when steel and iron industry developed at a relatively slow speed. The second stage （2010--2021）is its growth stage when development of patent technology accelerates and some important inventions appear. The third stage （2022--2033）is the mature stage, when peripheral patents constitute a major part. After that, the stage of decline will arrive, and patent applications will decrease. According to the development stage of technology development and strength comparison of domestic and foreign patents, the paper puts forward a patent strategy with three steps for the industrial technology innovation in China. The three steps are breakthroughs in core technology, the establishment of patent portfolio, and international development.

关 键 词：钢铁产业 技术生命周期 LOGISTIC模型 专利分析 技术预测 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]