具有趋势变异的非一致性东江流域洪水序列频率计算研究  

Methods of Hydrological Frequency Analysis for Non-stationary Flood Data with Trend Components in Dongjiang River Basin

作　　者：叶长青[1,2,3] 陈晓宏[2,3] 张家鸣[2,3] 朱爱萍[2,3] 张丽娟[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]海南大学环境与植物保护学院,海口570228 [2]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广州510275 [3]华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广州510275

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2013年第12期2105-2116,共12页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点和重大项目(50839005;51190091;51210013);国家自然科学基金(51379223;41001019);广东省科技厅项目(2010B050300010);广东省水利科技创新项目(2009-39);中山大学重大项目培育和新兴交叉学科项目(10lg-zd11);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB428405);广东省自然科学基金项目(S2011040005992);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目专题(200901043-3)

摘　　要：世界众多江河洪水序列形成的环境背景"一致性"已不复存在,传统极值流量分析的"极值理论"需修正。东江流域变化环境后,龙川和河源站年最大日流量序列M-K检验通过0.01显著水平,呈下降趋势。采用时间变化矩模型对年最大日流量序列作非一致性处理,选择5种分布线型、8种趋势模型共40种模型进行比较。结果表明,龙川站对数正态分布搭配CP趋势(均值和标准差相关且具有抛物线趋势)模型、河源站Gumbel分布搭配CP趋势模型拟合效果最优。水文情势变化后,传统洪水重现期概念应该被修正。基于传统频率分析方法得到的100 a一遇洪水设计值,均表现出其重现期由水利工程建设前小于100 a一遇变化到2000年后的大于400 a一遇,而非100 a一遇。若仍采用传统方法计算,两站均会高估设计洪水量级。非一致性背景下,推荐考虑现状时间基点下的洪水设计值。No ＂stationarity＂ exists in the environmental background for the formation of many river flood series in the world any longer, and the traditional extreme value flow analysis, i.e. ＂extreme value theory＂ must be amended in order to adapt to these phenomena. The annual maximum peak flow of Longchuan and Heyuan stations in Dongjiang River Basin exhibited a decreasing trend at the significance level of 0.01 detected by Mann-kendall test after hydraulic engineering regulation. In this study, the non-stationary processing method of time-varying moments （TVM） was adopted to analyze and calculate the annual maximum daily flow series at Longchuan and Heyuan stations of the Dongjiang River Basin. Five types of distribution curves and eight kinds of trend models, for a total of 40 models, were selected for comparison. The results showed that lognormal distribution （LN2） with a CP model （CP refers to both the mean value and standard deviation have a parabolic type trend and the ratio of the two is constant） at Longchuan Station, Gumbel distribution with a CP model at Heyuan Station may obtain the optimal fitting effect. After significant changes occur to the hydrological regime, the concept of tradition flood should be amended. Based on traditional frequency analysis methods, the design value of 100-year flood was available, indicating that a return period changed from less than 100 years before hydraulic engineering construction to 400 years after 2000 at two hydrological stations, rather than 100 years, for both stations. In the context of non-stationarity, the flood design value corresponding the present time points should be recommended.

关 键 词：水文频率 概率分布函数 时变统计参数 极值流量 非一致性 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]