基于复杂因子的网络舆情推演研究  

Public Opinion Deduction Research Based on Complexity Factors

作　　者：沈阳[1] 吴荆棘[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学信息管理学院

出　　处：《情报学报》2013年第12期1315-1325,共11页Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“突发公共事件舆情应对与效果评估信息平台建设研究”(编号:11&ZD025)子课题“应对突发公共事件的效果评估指标体系研究”的研究成果

摘　　要：近几年中国重大负面事件频发，而且随着互联网、新媒体的发展和应用，网民参与扩散和讨论舆情事件的热情更高，网络舆情研究也成为国内学者研究的重点之一。网络舆情如何产生、发展和演变、影响因素有哪些等，是网络舆情研究的重点问题。为研究以上问题，本文通过文本分析、聚类分析2008～2012年发生在中国的320个重大网络舆情事件，假设出23个影响网络舆情演变的舆情因子，5个反映舆情发展结果情况的效果因子，通过结构方程模型构建因子模型——网络舆情推演模型；最后在此基础上选取10件热点事件进行实证推演，结果支持了假设的合理性。在以后的研究中需要不断优化网络舆情影响因子框架，并强化推演模型的准确性。Recent years have witnessed the frequent occurrences of grave negative events in China. Along with the application and evolvement of Internet and new media, netizens＇enthusiasms in spreading and discussing public opinion events have heightened. Internet public opinion research has thus become one of the research priorities of Chinese scholars in recent years. Internet public opinion research places heavy premium upon the emergence, development, evolvement, influencing factors and other aspects of public opinion. To probe into aforementioned facets, this paper has hypothesized 23 public opinion factors that influence Internet public opinion evolution and 5 effect factors that reflect public opinion development results through textual analysis and cluster analysis of 320 major Internet public opinion events in China from 2008 to 2012. On the basis of structural equation model, this paper has then constructed a factor model, or rather public opinion deduction model. Finally, ten hotspot events have been selected to conduct empirical deduction, which has strengthened the validity of the hypothesis. It is necessary to persist in optimizing the framework of Internet public opinion influencing factors and enhancing the accuracy of deduction model in future researches.

关 键 词：影响因子 网络舆情推演 结构方程模型 舆情演变规律 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]