海南岛香蕉寒害纯保险费率研究  

Study on pure premium rate of cold damage to banana in Hainan Island

作　　者：蔡大鑫[1] 张京红[2] 邹海平[1] 刘少军[2] 

机构地区：[1]海南省气象科学研究所南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南海口570203 [2]海南省气候中心,海南海口570203

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第6期210-216,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41175096);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106024)

摘　　要：寒害严重影响和制约了海南香蕉种植业的发展,开展香蕉寒害保险研究,对于减少农业损失、促进海南经济发展具有重大意义。利用海南岛18个市(县)1990-2010年的香蕉产量数据和1961-2010年的气象数据,计算了香蕉的寒害减产历史序列,应用极值理论构建了产量风险分布模型,并依此对各市(县)纯保险费率进行了厘定。结果表明:20世纪60-80年代是海南岛寒害多发的时期,90年代以后则呈现降低的趋势。中部和北部是纯保险费率的高值区,其中白沙、琼中、五指山和澄迈为最高,而低值区分布在南部和东部,费率的空间分布与寒害气象风险的空间分布基本一致。多种免赔额为不同地区选择合适的费率提供了参考,而在进行费率设定时要考虑当地寒害风险的变化趋势。Cold damage seriously affects and restricts the development of banana planting industry in Hainan. It is of great importance to study the insurance of cold-damaged banana to reduce agricultural losses and economic growth of Hainan. With the data of yields of banana during 1990 -2010 and data of weather of 18 cities/countries in Hainan Island from 1961 to 2010, historical sequences of banana yield reduction caused by cold damage were calculated, and based on the extreme value theory, distribution models of yield risk were constructed, and the pure premium rates of the study areas were collated and stipulated. The results show that 1960s to 1980s is a period of frequent cold damages in Hainan Island. However, the disasters declined after the 1990s. The middle and north of Hainan Island are areas with high pure premium rates, including Baisha, Qiongzhong, Wuzhishan and Chengmai, while the south and east areas are the opposite. The spatial distribution of the rates is generally consistent with the distribution of weather risk of cold damage. It is possible to approximate and adopt different deductible rates in different regions. When the rates are collated and stipulated, the trends of cold damage risk change should be taken into account.

关 键 词：香蕉寒害 减产率 产量风险分布 保险 

分 类 号：F840.66[经济管理—保险]