基于组合预测的浙江省台风灾害损失预测  

Forecasting of typhoon disaster loss in Zhejiang Province based on the combination forecasting model

作　　者：张颖超[1] 范金平[1] 邓华[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第6期223-231,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项资助项目(GYHY201106040);江苏省产学研联合创新资金-前瞻性联合研究资助项目(BY2011111);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD);江苏省研究生培养创新工程(CXZZ12_0514)

摘　　要：浙江省是遭受台风灾害较为严重的地区之一,台风灾害的损失预测对防灾减灾工作及城市国民经济建设具有重大意义。通过对影响浙江省的历史台风灾害损失值的分析处理,根据群关联度筛选受灾体脆弱度的影响因子,以损失率的方式预测估计了台风带来的灾害损失。采用组合预测方法,将几种比较成熟的预测方法,根据一定的规则建立相应的组合预测模型来预测损失率。通过信息集成以分散单一预测的不确定性,减少总体不确定性,从而提高预测精度。几个预测结果的均方根误差(RMSE)显示,组合预测能很好地减小单一预测方法的误差,有效地提高预测台风灾害损失值的可靠性。Zhejiang is a serious typhoon disaster suffered region. Typhoon disaster loss prediction is of great significance to disaster prevention and reduction engineering and urban national economic construction . Through the analysis and processing of the Zhejiang province＇s historical typhoon disaster loss value, this paper chooses the impact factors by the gray relational theory group , predicts and estimates the rate of loss in a coming typhoon. Available mature forecasting methods have different advantages and disadvantages, so it is appropriate to choose combination forecasting model to predict the rate of loss. Based on several single forecast results, a corresponding combination forecasting model was established according to certain rules. The RMSE results of several prediction show that combination forecast can well reduce error, effectively improve the reliability in forecasting the coming ty- phoon＇ s loss.

关 键 词：台风 损失预测 组合预测 均方根误差 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] P444[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]