Analysis of Key Drivers on China's Carbon Emissions and Policy Rethinking Based on LMDI:1995–2010  

中国碳排放关键驱动因子的分析和政策反思——基于LMDI:1995-2010（英文）

作　　者：蒋金荷[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2013年第4期304-310,共7页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Basic Research Program of China(No.2012CB955801)

摘　　要：Economic policy and energy policy are two major factors of energy consumption and carbon emissions. The economic factor is external and energy supply structure and efficiency are intrinsic factors. Based on a carbon emissions completely decomposed analysis model, the logarithmic mean Divisia Index （LMDI） system analyzes the impact of carbon emission changes and the contribution rate in China from 1995 to 2010. The decomposition factors include four parts： economies of scale, structure effect, energy intensity effect and carbon intensity effects. Model results show that the contribution rate of the four effects is different and from 1995 to 2010 the greatest factors impacting increases in carbon emissions were economic development （contribution rate of 155%） and industrial structure change （contribution rate of 10.6%）. The reduction in carbon emissions was mainly the result of a decline in energy intensity （contribution rate of -63.7%）. The increase in carbon emissions in recent years is the result of changes in major economies of scale with 168.2% contribution rate, changes in carbon intensity （contribution rate of 4%） and industrial restructuring （contribution rate of 1.3%） have also contributed to increasing carbon emissions. Energy intensity declined only played a role in reducing carbon emissions （contribution rate -73.5%）. These results suggest that China needs to rethink industrial policy and energy development measures, strengthen future energy saving and emission mitigation policies and strengthen investment in low-carbon energy technologies and policy support.影响中国能源消费和碳排放的两大主因是经济政策和能源政策,显然,经济因素是外因,能源供应结构和能源效率才是影响的内在因子。本文基于碳排放的完全分解分析模型——对数平均Divisia指数(LMDI)系统分析了影响1995-2010年中国碳排放变化的关键因子和贡献率,分解因子包括四种,即经济规模效应、结构效应、能源强度效应、碳强度效应。指数分解模型结果表明,不同时期这四种效应对碳排放变化的贡献率是不同的,1995-2010年对碳排放增加影响最大的因子是经济发展(贡献率155%)和产业结构改变(贡献率10.6%),而碳排放量的减少主要是由能源强度下降贡献的(贡献率-63.7%),碳强度效应影响很小。但最近几年碳排放量的增加除了经济规模这个主要因子,碳强度的改变(贡献率4%)、产业结构调整(贡献率1.3%)都促进了碳排放量的增加,只有能源强度的下降起到了抑制碳排放量增加的作用(贡献率-73.5%)。模型的这种分解结果提示我们需要对这一时期内的产业政策、能源发展措施等方面进行反思,未来还要加强"节能减排"政策的落实、加强低碳能源技术的投资力度和政策扶持。

关 键 词：carbon emissions China LMDI energy policy economic growth 

分 类 号：X502[环境科学与工程—环境工程]