Structural Decomposition Analysis of the Decline in China's CO_2 Emission Intensity 2005–2010  

中国2005-2010年二氧化碳排放强度下降的结构分解分析（英文）

作　　者：李艳梅[1] 赵剑锋[1] 杨涛 陈豹[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学循环经济研究院,北京100124 [2]中国藏学研究中心社会经济研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2013年第4期311-316,共6页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Fund of China(No.71103012);Humanities and Social Science Project of Beijing University of Technology(No.X5104001201201)

摘　　要：Here we utilize input-output tables for 2005 and 2010 to calculate the change in carbon dioxide emission intensity. Results show that total carbon dioxide emissions were 6.79 and 9.30 billion tons, and carbon dioxide emission intensity was 0.37 and 0.33 ton per thousand CNY in 2005 and 2010, respectively. Carbon dioxide emission intensity declined 11% over these five years. We used structural decomposition analysis modeling to measure the effect of four factors on this reduction in intensity. We found that the contribution values of energy structure, energy efficiency, economic growth mode and economic structure were -0.001, -0.102, 0.050, and 0.013 ton per thousand CNY, respectively. Changes in energy efficiency and energy structure are major factors promoting decreases in carbon dioxide emission intensity; the effect of the former is more distinct than the latter. Economic growth mode and economic structure are major factors that increase carbon dioxide emission intensity, whereby the effect of the former is more distinct than the latter.本文以2005年和2010年的投入产出表为基础,核算了中国二氧化碳排放强度的变化。结果表明,2005年二氧化碳排放总量678 964.38万t,强度每万元3.67t。2010年二氧化碳排放总量930 194.96万t,强度每万元3.27t(2005年价格)。5年间,二氧化碳排放强度降低了11%。在此基础上进一步构建结构分解分析模型,将促使二氧化碳排放强度的降低的因素分解为4种效应,即能源效率因素、能源结构因素、经济结构效应和经济增长方式效应。计量结果表明,部门单位产出能源消费强度变化和能源消费结构变化是造成二氧化碳排放强度下降的因素,其中尤以前者的影响最为显著。而经济增长方式变化和经济结构变化是促使二氧化碳排放强度上升的因素,并且前者的影响更为显著。

关 键 词：carbon dioxide emissions intensity economic growth energy consumption INPUT-OUTPUT structural decomposition analysis 

分 类 号：X502[环境科学与工程—环境工程]