基于SCS模型实时洪水预报系统的研究  

Research on Flood Real-Time Forecasting Based on SCS Model

作　　者：赵晶[1,2] 黄强[1] 郝鹏[3] 田文君[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [2]黄河水利委员会水文局,河南郑州450004 [3]黄河水利出版社,河南郑州450004

出　　处：《西安理工大学学报》2013年第4期386-391,共6页Journal of Xi'an University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50709027)

摘　　要：实时洪水预报系统能够及时地进行洪水预报,从而使决策者提前做出防汛措施,以便及时的对水库进行放水或蓄水,减少损失,达到防洪减灾的目的。应用SCS模型的产汇流理论及水文预报方法,使用Excel VBA语言对所需计算进行程序设计。模型和实时技术相结合,研究实时洪水预报问题,并以雍混水河小流域2011年的1次实测降雨为例进行计算。研究结果表明,SCS模型能够描述不同土壤类型和前期土壤含水量条件下的地表径流过程,对于小流域洪水预报具有较强的能力。实时预报结果与实测值十分接近,SCS模型能够及时、高效进行洪水预报。Accurate flood forecast can make the flood forecast in time, whereby the decision-maker can work out the prevention measures in advance so as to release or store water in reservoirs in time to reduce losses in such a way that the objective of flood control and disaster reduction can be achieved. This paper uses SCS model of run off production and collection theory and hydrological predicting method and Excel VBA language to carry out programming design for the computers needed. The combination of model with real-time technology is used to study the real-time flood forecast problem, with one real measured rainfall in small watershed of Yong Hunshui in 2011 as an example to carry out calculation. The research results indicate that SCS model is able to describe the different types of soil and the process of land surface runoff under the soil moisture content conditions in the previous period, which is of strong capacity to forecast flood in small watershed. The Real-time forecast results are found to be close to the real measured values. Accordingly, SCS model is able to carry out flood forecast in time and with high efficiency.

关 键 词：洪水 实时 SCS模型 预报 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]