达乌尔黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫预警指标体系的建立  

Early-warning index system of animal plague in spermophvlus dauricus focus

作　　者：周晓磊[1] 张博宇[2] 丛显斌[1] 李仲来[2] 姚晓恒[1] 鞠成[1] 徐成[1] 张贵军[1] 段天一[1] 陈磊[1] 刘振才[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心鼠疫布氏菌病预防控制基地,吉林白城137000 [2]北京师范大学

出　　处：《中国地方病防治》2013年第6期401-403,共3页Chinese Journal of Control of Endemic Diseases

基　　金：卫生行业科研专项项目(201202021)

摘　　要：目的筛选出影响动物鼠疫流行的主要影响因素的监测指标,建立达乌尔黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫流行预警指标体系。方法对内蒙古自治区的达乌尔黄鼠疫源地整体数据,利用Matlab软件中最优回归子集法建立回归方程,筛选出与动物鼠疫流行相关性最大的监测指标。结果从7个指标中选取鼠密度、鼠体染蚤率、鼠体蚤指数、洞干蚤指数等4个监测指标建立达乌尔黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫预测预警回归方程;对回归模型利用原始数据进行拟合,拟合率为83.3%。结论利用鼠密度、鼠体染蚤率、鼠体蚤指数、洞干蚤指数等4个监测指标,即可完成对黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫流行的预测预警。Objectives To select monitoring index of factors that influence animal plague epidemics, and build up early warning system of animal plague in spermophvlus daurieus focus. Methods Basing on complete data of spermophvlus dauricus focus in Inner Mongolia, the optimal subset regression method was employed to build regression equation by using Matlab software. Moni- toring index which was the most relative to animal plague was selected. Results Predicted warning regression equation was set up by using the index of rat density, flea-carrying rate, body flea index, and burrow flea index of the total 7 risk factors. Regres- sion model was matched by using the original data with the fitting rate of 83.3%. Conclusion Early warning system of animal plague in spermophvlus daurieus focus can be built by using the index of rat density, flea-carrying rate, body flea index, and burrow flea index.

关 键 词：最优回归子集 动物鼠疫 预警指标体系 建立 

分 类 号：R516.8[医药卫生—内科学]