城镇居民消费挤入与挤出影响效应研究  

Crowding-in or Crowding-out: The Impact of Government Spending on Urban Residents' Consumption

作　　者：成谢军[1] 张伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏第二师范学院,江苏南京210013 [2]南京师范大学中北学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《价格月刊》2013年第10期76-79,共4页

基　　金：江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目"新农村建设背景下我国二元经济结构的破解之道"(编号:2011SJB790008);江苏第二师范学院"十二五"规划课题"江苏省收入分配结构调整研究"(编号:Jsie2012yb10)的阶段研究成果

摘　　要：运用我国1985年～2011年的城镇居民消费水平、政府支出变动水平以及城镇居民可支配收入水平等数据,通过构建理论模型和计量模型对政府支出变动如何影响城镇居民消费进行了实证研究。结果表明:政府支出变动短期对城镇居民消费具有挤出效应,长期则具有挤入效应;决定城镇居民消费水平的主要因素是城镇居民的可支配收入;城镇居民消费对政府支出变动较为敏感,对可支配收入变动则非常敏感。根据这些研究结论,提出了相应政策建议。By using data of urban residents consumption level, changes in the level of government spending as well as the level of disposable income of urban residents and other data during the period 1985 -2011, and through constructing theoreti- cal models and econometric models, this paper empirically studies how the changes in government spending affect the con- sumption of urban residents. And the results show that： in the short term changes in government spending have a crowding- out effect on urban residents＂ consumption, while in the long term crowding-in effect comes along; the level of urban resi- dents＇ consumption is decided by residents＇ disposable incomes; urban residents＂ consumption is rather sensitive to changes in government spending but very sensitive to changes in disposable incomes. Finally corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.

关 键 词：政府支出 城镇居民消费 挤出效应 挤入效应 

分 类 号：F126.2[经济管理—世界经济]