扩大内需会抑制出口吗?——来自长三角的数据  

Does Expanding Domestic Demand Impede Export? Data from Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：陈启斐[1] 李平华[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093 [2]南京财经大学国际经贸学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《财贸研究》2013年第3期38-46,共9页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"扩大内需条件下提高长三角对外开放水平研究"(11JJD790036);南京大学"跨学科科研创新基金"子课题(2012CW09)

摘　　要：利用2004—2010年长三角制造业26个细分行业的面板数据,考察扩大内需战略对长三角地区出口贸易产生的影响。研究表明:内需的提高不仅不会抑制出口,还能促进出口贸易的扩张,数据显示,内需每提高1%会促进出口量扩大超过1%,这意味着在目前阶段,长三角地区对外贸易中本土市场效应发挥了核心作用;对细分行业的研究发现,在纺织业、化工业和金属制造业中存在着强本土市场效应,而在采矿业、机械设备制造业和食品业中仅存在弱本土市场效应;同时,外商直接投资和行业竞争程度对出口有正向激励作用,而人均资本和对外开放程度会抑制出口。This paper explores an empirical study of the effect on export trade by implementing the strat- egy of expanding domestic demand with The Yangtze River Delta manufacturing sub-industry panel data ran- ging from 2004 to 2010. The results confn-m that domestic demand has effected the expansion of export, that is to say, HME does exist. Then industries are divided into technology - intensive, capital-intensive and labor-intensive ones, which shows that HME exists in textile industry, chemical industry and non-metallic industry. Meanwhile, the empirical results demonstrate that per capital, FDI, openness and industry level of competition influence export obviously. At last, the analysis of the channel of HME indicates expansion of domestic demand can improve the agglomeration of labor, reduce degree of capital distorted, but lower TFP of the industry.

关 键 词：扩大内需 出口 本土市场效应 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F752