密云水库以上流域年径流变化趋势及周期分析  

Change Trend and Period of Annual Runoff in Upstream Watershed of Miyun Reservoir

作　　者：钟永华 鲁帆[2] 易忠[3] 赵静[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市密云水库管理处,北京101512 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [3]北京市潮白河管理处,北京101512

出　　处：《水文》2013年第6期81-84,共4页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51109224);国家重点基础研究发展计划课题(2010CB951102;2013CB036406)

摘　　要：密云水库是华北地区最大的水库,是确保首都供水安全和经济社会发展的重要水源地。本文以密云水库控制流域的张家坟站、下会站为代表站,选取1960~2012年的年径流资料,采用线性回归法、Kendall秩次相关检验法、Spearman秩次相关检验法分析密云水库以上流域径流的变化趋势,采用连续功率谱方法分析密云水库以上流域径流的周期。结果表明：密云水库上游潮河和白河两个流域径流的年际变化非常大,它们在同一年的径流丰枯基本一致,其中同丰同枯的概率最大。近半个世纪以来,上述两个流域的径流均呈现出明显的减少趋势,并且白河流域径流的减小速度快于潮河流域,密云水库以上流域年径流量序列显著存在约4~5a的周期振荡。As the biggest reservoir in the North China, the Miyun Reservoir is an important water source to ensure water supply security and economic and social development in Beijing. The Zhangjiafen station and Xiahui station were chosen as representation stations. Based on the annual runoff from 1960 to 2008, the change trend of the runoff in the upstream of the Miyun Reservoir was analyzed by using linear regression method, Kendall rank correlated test method and Spearman rank correlated test method. The period of the runoff in the upstream of the Miyun Reservoir was studied by using continuous power spectrum method. The results indicate that the annual runoff variations of the Chaohe River and Baihe River are both large, and they have almost the same abundant and low state in the same year. Among them, the probability of simultaneous appearance of abundant or low state is the biggest. During the past half century, the runoff of two watersheds showed an obvious decrease trend, and the Baihe watershed decreased faster than Chaohe. Meanwhile, there is an obvious 4-5 years oscillation period of annual runoff series in the upstream of the Miyun Reservoir.

关 键 词：密云水库 径流 变化趋势 周期 

分 类 号：S715.13[农业科学—林学]