安徽省设施农业冬季低温风险分析和区划  

Low Temperature Risk Division in Winter for Protected Agriculture in Anhui Province

作　　者：李德[1] 杨太明[2] 刘瑞娜[2] 马晓群[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省宿州市气象局,宿州234000 [2]安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥230061

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2013年第6期703-709,共7页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：安徽省气象科技发展项目"日光温室最高最低气温预报技术研究及其应用"(KM201122);安徽省气象局2009年重点业务项目"安徽省精细化农业气候区划"

摘　　要：利用1960-2010年安徽省29个气象观测站的冬季气象监测资料,采用数理统计方法,由年极端低温发生的气候概率,确定设施农业类型布局;由年极端低温气候概率及其波动性、各地冬季逐日最低气温发生强度及其平均日数4个参量,构建设施农业低温综合风险指数,并进行评估。结果表明:(1)安徽各地冬季低于-5.0℃的极端低温的气候概率超过80%,不宜发展塑料小拱棚。(2)低于-10.0℃的极端低温的气候概率为20%,其等值线基本与淮河走势一致,沿淮河向南极端低温逐渐减小的地区适宜发展塑料大棚,沿淮河向北逐渐增高的地区适宜发展日光温室。(3)冬季塑料大棚和日光温室生产的低温冷(冻)害风险综合指数可分为无、轻、中、重和特重5级,淮河以南塑料大棚发展区内,除沿淮河为重度风险区外,其它区域均为中度-轻度风险区,尤其是皖西南部和皖东南部的大部区域均为轻度风险区。淮河以北日光温室发展区内,东北部的宿州市全境和淮北市大部区域为特重风险区,西南部的亳州和阜阳市所辖的区域为中度风险区,其它区域为轻度风险区。The layout of protected agriculture types was identified by using mathematical statistics, based on observed meteorological data in winter from 29 representative meteorological stations in Anhui province from 1960 to 2010. The comprehensive risk index of low temperature was established with 4 parameters, including climatic probability and its volatility of annual extreme low temperature, occurrence intensity and average days of daily lowest temperature in winter. The results showed that it was not suitable for small plastic arch shed if risk probability of extreme low temperature （ 〈- 5.0℃ ） was more than 80%. If the risk probability of extreme low temperature （ 〈- 10. 0℃ ） was more than 20% , where located along Huaihe river, it was suitable to plastic sheeting in south region and suitable to sunlight greenhouse in north region. The comprehensive risk index of low temperature was divided into 5 grades, no effect, slight, moderate, severe and extra severe respectively. Slight and moderate damage was dominated in south of Huaihe river and moderate and severe damage was dominated in north of Huaihe river.

关 键 词：设施农业 冬季低温 风险分析 区划 

分 类 号：S316[农业科学—作物栽培与耕作技术]