基于回归分析的龙门滩水库设计洪水计算  

Design Flood Calculation of Longmentan Reservoir Based on Regression Analysis

作　　者：庞琼[1,2] 陈鸣[1,3] 王士军[1,4] 谷艳昌[1,4] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [2]河海大学水利水电工程学院,江苏南京210098 [3]水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [4]水利部大坝安全管理中心,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《人民黄河》2013年第12期37-40,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51209143);国家国际科技合作专项(2011DFA72810)

摘　　要：由于流量资料不足,龙门滩水库坝址设计洪水只能采用暴雨资料来推求。由于该水库流域内德化、凤洋、龙门滩等7个雨量站建成于不同年份,且每个测站的降雨资料并不连续,缺测年份较多,因此采用线性回归分析法建立线性回归方程式,进行插补延长得到各站连续57 a降雨资料。采用推理公式法、瞬时单位线法、地区综合法推算出龙门滩水库坝址设计洪水。As the lack of flow materials, dam site design flood only could be calculated with precipitation data for Longmentan Reservoir. Because those 7 precipitation stations including Dehua, Fengyang, Lon^nentan, etc. were built in different years, and each station＇ s precipitation data were not continuous, there were many vacant years, linear regression analysis method was used and linear regression equations were built to interpo- late and extend the continuous precipitation data into 57 years. Reasoning formula method, instantaneous unit hydrograph method and regional com- prehensive method were used to calculate the dam site design flood of Longmentan Reservoir.

关 键 词：回归分析 暴雨资料 设计洪水 龙门滩水库 

分 类 号：TV122.3[水利工程—水文学及水资源]