黄河三角洲水资源承载力多目标优化计算  

Multi-Objective Optimization Model of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Yellow River Delta

作　　者：张欣[1,2] 范明元[1,2] 陈华伟[1,2] 黄继文[1,2] 刘海娇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]山东省水利科学研究院,山东济南250014 [2]山东省水资源与水环境重点实验室,山东济南250014

出　　处：《人民黄河》2013年第12期47-49,53,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(200801026);中国科学院对外合作重点项目(GJHZ1016)

摘　　要：为促进黄河三角洲地区水资源的可持续利用,构建了水资源承载力多目标优化计算模型,选用人口、经济和粮食承载指数量化水资源承载力,得出2010年、2015年和2020年不同水平年基本方案和节水方案下水资源系统能够支撑的最大人口和经济社会发展规模,利用相对承载指数法评价了水资源承载力的相对状态。结果表明:2010年研究区整体处于弱度超载状态;2015年、2020年由于用水功效系数的提高、南水北调工程通水以及非常规水源的利用,因此水资源承载能力有了较大的提高;节水方案下研究区水资源承载力更强,节水是提高研究区水资源承载力的重要措施。In order to promote the sustainable utilization of water resources in the Yellow River Delta, this paper established a multi-objective opti- mization model of water resources carrying capacity and obtained the largest population and economic society development scale supported by the wa- ter resources system under the basic schemes and water-saving schemes of 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively by calculating the carrying indexes of population, economy and crops of the study area. Meanwhile, this paper evaluated the relative status of water resources carrying capacity using the relative carrying index method. The results show that the study area is in a weak situation of overload as a whole in 2010; the water resources carry- ing capacity in 2015 and 2020 will be greatly improved due to the increase of efficacy coefficient of water use, the implementation of South-to-North Water Transfer Project and the wide use of unconventional water; the water resources ca^ing capacity of the water-saving scheme is bigger than the basic scheme, so water saving is an important measure to improve the water resources carrying capacity of the study area.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 多目标优化模型 用水总量控制 相对承载指数法 黄河三角洲 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1