应用计量模型的我国私人汽车持有量的预测分析  

Predictive Analysis of Private Car Ownership in China on the Basis of Econometric Model

作　　者：赵国杰[1] 孔繁兴[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》2013年第12期118-122,共5页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science

摘　　要：基于统计年鉴数据,应用计量模型之多元统计回归方法对我国私人汽车持有量的影响因素及这些因素对私人汽车持有量的影响程度进行精确分析;分析中引入岭回归分析以解决变量的多重共线性问题,并给出详细操作过程;最后对私人汽车持有量进行预测。Based on the data of statistical yearbook, the econometric model of multi-statistics regres- sion is applied to precisely analyzing the factors that influence the private ear ownership in China and the impact of each influential factor subsequently. Ridge regression is involved in this analysis to deal with the multicollinearity of variables. Explicit analysis procedures are presented and the private car ownership in the future is predicted.

关 键 词：私人汽车持有量 计量模型分析 多元统计回归 岭回归 显著性检验 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]