三峡库区典型滑坡预测预报研究  

On forecasting typical landslides in the ThreeGorge Reservoir

作　　者：赵松琴[1] 朱思军[2] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学土木与建筑学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]广东省水利水电科学研究院,广州510610

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2013年第6期259-264,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：以三峡库区某典型滑坡案例为研究对象,介绍了滑坡的地形地貌特征、结构特征及水文特征,对监测点的原始监测数据用均匀滤波法进行光滑处理,以满足预测模型的需要,之后对监测点的原始监测数据采用线性插值法进行等距化处理,以消除随机因素对监测数据的干扰,然后对处理后的监测数据利用目前较常用的两个滑坡预测模型———灰色GM(1,1)模型、曲线回归分析模型进行预测分析,预测出未来一段时间内监测点的变形趋势,以点带面,从而得到整个滑坡的未来变形情况。最后从滑坡的变形速率和宏观地质巡查两个方面综合判定滑坡的变形为整体变形,且有加速趋势。根据变形及地质特征判断从2009年7月开始此滑坡进入整体滑移阶段。The paper is intended to bring about our study results on the approach to forecasting typical landslides in the ThreeGorge Reservoir by taking a typical landslide case in the area as a sample. However, before doing anything else, we would like to make a brief introduction to the topographical features and the structural features of the area particularly from the point of view of hydrological characteris tics. For our research goal, we have adopted the Uniform Filtering Method in dealing with the raw monitoring data of the monitoring points effectively so as to gain a scientific ground after finishing a se ries of monitoring activities. The purpose of this step is also to supply enough data for the forecast model. At the same time, since the ran dora factors were likely to bring about interference with the monitorillg data, it should ire necessary to eliminate such interference when we introduced the Linear Interpolation to handle the raw monitoring data of the monitoring points separately. Practically speaking, what we can choose for our research are two kinds of the forecasting models, the Grey GM （ 1,1 ） Model and the Curve Regression Analysis Model, which have been popularly used for the time being. When we came to the stage of collecting and analyzing the monitoring data, we began to try to use the above said two forecast models. While pursuing the process of the deformation trend of the monitoring points in the next period of time, we have found that the data and facts of a certain sec tion of the reservoir may help us to infer what would have happened with the whole area. Therefore, it can be taken for granted that the deformation trend of the whole landslide in the future could be de duced from what has happened to the part. And, last of all, the de formation and the devastating disaster that has happened in some par ticular point due to the landslide could be inferred as the overall col lapse of the landslides, which may be likely to accelerate the sliding trend. Thus, the conclusion of ours can thus

关 键 词：土木建筑工程其他学科 三峡库区 滑坡 预测 

分 类 号：TU196[建筑科学—建筑理论]