基于潮流转移识别的电力系统连锁故障风险评估模型  

Risk Assessment Model of Cascading Failures in Power System Based on Identification of Power Flow Transferring

作　　者：张富春[1] 吕景顺[2] 范迪铭[2] 黄家栋[1] 周庆捷 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,河北保定071003 [2]甘肃省电力公司电力科学研究院,甘肃兰州730050 [3]北京中恒博瑞数字电力科技有限公司,北京100085

出　　处：《电力科学与工程》2013年第12期8-12,35,共6页Electric Power Science and Engineering

摘　　要：在元件停运概率历史统计值的基础上,综合考虑潮流因素的影响,给出了元件停运概率曲线,并采用严重度指标从系统静态安全的角度评估了连锁故障的后果。为了缩小安全分析的范围,根据实时网络拓扑结构建立相应的矩阵,经过矩阵运算,得到过载支路对应的并行断面;利用动态解耦潮流算法计算并行断面内支路的潮流,将潮流增加较大的支路作为下一故障环节的备选支路集。最后以IEEE 39节点系统为对象进行仿真,验证了此方法的可行性与有效性。This paper proposes a risk assessment model of cascading failures in power system based on identifica- tion of power flow transferring. Taking the influence of the factor of power flow, the model gives the probability curve of components outage which is based on its historical statistics. And consequences of cascading failures is as- sessed by using severity indexes from the perspective of static security. In order to narrow the scope of the safety a- nalysis, the matrix corresponding to real-time network topology is built and after the matrix operation the corre- sponding parallel section is gotten. The branches in parallel section whose power flow increases larger are selected as aJtemative branch set of the next fault link, and the power flow of these branches is calculated by the dynamic decoupled power flow algorithm. Finally, the simulation of IEEE 39-bus is done which proves the feasibility and ef- fectiveness of this method.

关 键 词：连锁故障 风险评估 并行断面 潮流转移识别 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]