中国区域碳排放空间计量研究  

Spatial Econometric Study of Regional Carbon Emissions

作　　者：肖宏伟[1] 易丹辉[2] 张亚雄[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家信息中心经济预测部,北京100045 [2]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872

出　　处：《经济与管理》2013年第12期53-62,共10页Economy and Management

基　　金：国家科技部重点基础研究发展计划973项目(2012CB955700);中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(12XNH156);国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAC20B08)

摘　　要：如何从空间视角实现经济发展与碳减排双赢,是建设"美国中国"的重要推手,也是生态文明建设的必然要求。基于STIRPAT模型,从区域层面构建碳排放驱动因素扩展STIRPAT模型,并运用空间杜宾模型实证考察各驱动因素对碳排放规模和碳排放强度的影响。结果显示:地区间碳排放存在显著的示范和带头作用,驱动因素通过直接和间接途径影响碳排放,除能源价格外,其他影响因素均表现出显著性。因此,实现碳减排需要充分考虑空间相关性、异质性和外溢性,稳步推进城镇化进程,加大技术创新步伐,优化产业结构升级和能源消费结构,适度提高能源价格,在扩大对外开放的同时加大对外商投资的甄别。How to realize the economic development and carbon emission reduction win-win from space perspective is the construction of ＂push American Chinese＂, is also an inevitable requirement of the construction of ecological civilization. Under the theoretical basis of STIRPAT model, the drivers of carbon emissions extended STIRPAT model was constructed considering regional level. And using spatial Durbin model empirically examines the impact of the drivers on the scale of carbon emissions and carbon intensity, empirical results show that： there is a significant demonstration and leading role in regional carbon emissions, driving factors through direct and indirect impact on carbon emissions, in addition to energy prices, other factors have shown significant. In order to achieve carbon emission reduction, we need to take full account of spatial correlation, heterogeneity and spillover, by steadily push forward the process of urbanization, increase the pace of technological innovation, optimize the upgrading of industrial structure and energy consumption structure, an appropriate increase in energy prices to control the rapid growth of carbon emissions, open wider to the outside world at the same time to increase the screening of foreign investment, to achieve win-win economic development and carbon reduction.

关 键 词：碳排放 空间杜宾面板数据模型 空间外溢性 STIRPAT 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]