国家资产负债表研究成果及其应用  

The Research Results of Government Balance Sheets and Its Application

作　　者：马骏[1] 张晓蓉[2] 李治国[2] 

机构地区：[1]德意志银行大中华区 [2]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《科学发展》2013年第12期9-18,共10页Scientific Development

摘　　要：我国实施财税和预算改革须探讨其与政府资产负债表的关系。我国的财政预算必须实现"窄口径"向"全口径"的转变,并能够同时反映流量和存量数据、揭示中长期风险和隐性风险。我国中央政府和地方政府资产负债表的存量数据,揭示了社保、医疗、环境治理、地方债和铁路债带来的中长期财政压力。对较为紧迫的地方债务和或有债务问题,我国需建立以地方债为主的地方融资体系,通过编制地方政府资产负债表来披露地方债务规模和担保数量。上海可以率先尝试发行地方债和编制地方政府资产负债表。This paper investigates the reform of China＇s fiscal and government budget system based on government balance sheets. The budget should include all government activities, and incorporate both flow and stock statistics to reflect medium-- and long--term risks and implicit liabilities. Based on the estimated central government and local government balance sheets, this paper forecasts the medium-- and long--term fiscal pressure from social security, medicare, medicare aid and local government debt and Ministry of Railway debt. The paper suggests that local government bond should replace the financing platform to be the main source of local government financing. Shanghai can be the pilot city in issuing municipal bonds and compiling the local government balance sheets.

关 键 词：预算口径 政府资产负债表 中长期财政压力 地方债 

分 类 号：F810.2[经济管理—财政学]