基于SPI青海省东部农业区季节干旱变化分析  

Analysis on the Evolution of Seasonal Drought in Eastern Agriculture Region of Qinghai Province Based on SPI

作　　者：姚瑶[1] 张鑫[1] 马全[1] 廖清飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2013年第6期96-100,共5页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目(14110209);西北农林科技大学基本科研创新重点项目(Z109021202)

摘　　要：基于青海省东部农业区1960—2005年逐月降水资料,结合线性回归分析采用标准化降水指数研究青海省东部农业区季节干旱时空演变规律。结果表明,该地区以春旱和夏旱为主;春旱范围呈增大趋势且强度也略有加重,夏旱变化范围略减小而强度略有加重,秋旱的发展趋势与夏旱相反。空间上春旱西北呈减轻趋势而东南呈加剧趋势(东南部循化地区例外);夏旱以中部地区趋于减轻,而北部和南部趋于加剧;秋旱在西部地区缓解而东部加剧,南北地区都趋于加剧且程度相当。Based on monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2005 in eastern agriculture region of Qinghai province, the temporal-spatial variations of seasonal drought were analyzed using standardized precipitation index, linear regression analysis and Arc GIS 9.3 software. The results showed thai： the main seasonal me teorological drought types were spring drought and summer drought. The range and drought intensify of spring droughts increased; the range of summer droughts slightly decreased and droughts intensify slightly increased, and the trend of autumn droughts was opposite to summer droughts. The spring drought varia tion in spatial was that northwest region trended to reduce and the southeast region （except Xunhua） tren- ded to aggravate; The summer drought variation in spatial tended to reduce in central region and the north- ern and southern region both tended to aggravate; The autumn drought variation in spatial was that the western region tended to reduce, the eastern region tended to aggravate, and the northern and southern re- gion both tended to aggravate at the same grade.

关 键 词：季节干旱 标准化降水指数(SPI) 时空演变 青海省东部农业区 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]