中国旅游卫星账户2007延长表编算研究  

Research on Prolong of 2007 China Tourism Satellite Account Compilation

作　　者：马仪亮 

机构地区：[1]中国旅游研究院,北京100005

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2014年第1期47-54,共8页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(10zd&051);中国旅游研究院自主实验室研究课题共同资助~~

摘　　要：旅游宏观统计积弱,致使旅游业既难以"摸清自身家底",也难以形成明确的产业"身份"进入国民经济产业研究的话语体系,甚至在产业规模测定的实践和理论研究当中还存在明显误区,造成旅游经济的感性认识有余,而理性的量化支撑不足。为此,文章应用旅游卫星账户和投入产出理论,结合入境旅游和国内旅游统计调查实际,构建了一套符合国际统计核算标准和旅游卫星账户框架要求的旅游业增加值算法流程,测算得出2007年我国旅游业增加值占国民经济的比重约为2.67%,与美国、加拿大等国家的测算结果相近。文章所构架的算法体系,有助于更加客观和准确地了解旅游业在国民经济中的地位,更为借助可计算一般均衡、投入产出价格影响等模型测算旅游业完全经济影响,提供了一个更加精确和有效的基础性框架。Because of the undefined boundaries of the tourism industry, the objective of tourism statistics has been largely to provide feedback to individual trading groups, rather than to the interpretation and analysis of a highly standardized production activity. This apparent limitation within tourism statistics makes it difficult to gauge the scale and status of the tourism industry. Since the closing years of the last century, the Tourism Satellite Account （TSA） framework has gradually become the internationally accepted scientific method for conducting statistical investigations of tourism. However, there are a number of constraints associated with this method. Firstly, the compilation of a TSA requires a large-scale sample survey and considerable costs in terms of capital and human and physical resources. Secondly, the results obtained from the application of this method entail a certain degree of deviation from people＇ s daily experiences with which tourism is evidently more closely associated compared with industrial activities and productive service activities. Thirdly, the challenges of matching the statistical results of a TSA with the demands of sectionalism are considerable compared with the simpler consideration of gross income from tourism and its proportionate contribution to GDP as indicators of the size of the tourism industry. However, in terms of accuracy, gross income from tourism as a proportion of GDP provides only a speculative measure of the industry＇ s total economic contribution. As an indicator, it does not meet the requirements of the principles of statistics. Consequently, China＇s macro statistics on tourism present a dilemma in the long term： on one hand, they are accurate but not good to use; on the other hand, they are good to use but not accurate. This dilemma has led to the inability of the tourism industry to ascertain its own status. It has also failed to penetrate research discourses on the national economy and industry. Moreover, some evident errors in theory and practic

关 键 词：旅游业 旅游卫星账户 延长表 投入产出 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理] F223[经济管理—产业经济]