产品竞争与顾客选择下的清洁生产技术演化模型  

Evolutionary Model of Cleaner Production Technologies under Product Competition and Consumer Choice

作　　者：刘小峰[1,2] 盛昭瀚[2] 杜建国[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学会计学院,南京210023 [2]南京大学社会科学计算实验中心,南京210008 [3]江苏大学管理学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《管理科学》2013年第6期25-34,共10页Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71071072;71171099;71203085;71301070);江苏省社会科学基金(13SHC014);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)~~

摘　　要：清洁生产技术是可持续发展的重要途径,却难以在实践中推广。采用计算实验方法研究产品竞争和顾客选择对清洁生产技术演化的影响,聚焦规模报酬不变型产品的清洁生产技术,设定生产者和消费者的适应性规则、产品交易和技术选择规则,构建产品竞争与顾客选择下的清洁生产技术演化模型。通过多主体建模手段在计算机上实现,对不同情景下的系统多样性、演化、主体行为以及初始敏感性等问题进行研究。研究结果表明,系统演化呈现多样性特征,演化路径表明过分依赖市场的自由竞争不一定会提高产品的品质和环境水平,过分地引进清洁生产技术极有可能损害传统技术生产者的利益。揭示了顾客消费行为偏好对技术系统演化的影响,发现传统技术产品很难进入到一个环保型意识较高的地区或国家,而清洁技术产品进入到一个环保意识较低的地区或国家却有机会获得一定的市场份额。It is difficult to practically apply clean production technologies, which is considered as an important way of sustainable development. Adopting the method of computational experiments to study the impact of product competition and consumer choice on the evolution of cleaner production technologies, the study focuses on the cleaner production technologies of products with con- stant returns to scale. And this study sets rules of adaptive behaviors of producers and consumers, product trading and technology selection to build the model of the evolution of cleaner production technologies under product competition and consumer choice. We also explore issues such as system diversity, evolution, agent behavior and initial sensitivity in different scenarios by the method of multi-agent simulation on computer. The results shows that ： （~）diversity of system evolution is obvious and evolution trajectories reveal that being overly dependent on free competition of market cannot ensure the improvement of product quality and environment level; and ~）too much introduction of cleaner production technologies ＇tends to damage the benefits of traditional technology adaptors. The computational experiment results also indicate that the customer＇s consumer behavior preferences influ- ence technology evolution system. It is very difficult for products of traditional technology to enter to a mature market with high environmental protection consciousness, while cleaner products have opportunities to obtain certain market share in a market with less environmental protection consciousness.

关 键 词：计算实验 演化 清洁生产技术 复杂自适应系统 顾客消费行为 

分 类 号：F224.32[经济管理—国民经济]