流入驱动型与流出驱动型国际资本流动突然中断的影响因素分析--以新兴市场国家为例  

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Inflow-driven and Outflow-driven Sudden Stops of International Capital Flow ——Taking Emerging Economies as Examples

作　　者：郑璇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学经济学院 [2]湖南农业大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2014年第1期86-95,共10页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：湖南省哲学社科基金项目“新兴市场国家国际资本流动突然中断之形成与中国的防范研究”(12YBB119)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文运用1986-2012年26个新兴市场国家的季度数据,建立面板数据Probit模型分别考察流入驱动型和流出驱动型国际资本流动突然中断的影响因素,结果发现:流入驱动型突然中断发生概率与国内贸易及金融开放度、国际利率水平、投资者恐慌情绪、组合证券投资资本占比和风险传染指标正相关,与国内及国际经济增长和国际流动性水平负相关;流出驱动型突然中断发生概率与一国政府消费支出、金融开放度、国际储备规模、组合证券投资资本占比和风险传染指标正相关,与国内经济增长负相关;两种类型的突然中断在中国均为小概率高风险损失事件,近三年流出驱动型突然中断的发生概率相对较高。由此,提出中国防范国际资本流动突然中断的政策建议。This article utilizes quarterly data of 28 emerging market economies from 1986 to 2012 to separately study the influencing factors of the probability of inflow-driven and outflow-driven sudden stops through panel probit model. The results showed that： the probability of inflow-driven sudden stop is positively correlated with domestic trade and financial openness, international interest rates, investors＇panic, portfolio capital proportion and contagion indicators, and negatively correlated with domestic and international economic growth and global liquidity growth; by contrast, the probability of outflow- driven sudden stop is mainly influenced by domestic factors, positively correlated with government public consumption expenditure, financial openness, the scale of international reserves, portfolio capital proportion and risk contagion indicators, and negatively correlated with domestic economic growth. In China, each type of the sudden stops may be a small probability and high risk event, while the probability of outflow-driven sudden stop is relatively high in the coming three years in China. Thus, we propose some policy recommendations about guarding against sudden stops in China.

关 键 词：新兴市场国家 流入驱动型国际资本流动突然中断 流出驱动型国际资本流动突然中断 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]