中国粮食增产潜力影响因素分析  

The Analysis of Influencing Factors on Grain Potential Yield Growth

作　　者：高云[1] 陈伟忠[2] 詹慧龙[2] 何龙娟[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [2]农业部规划设计研究院农业发展与投资研究所,北京100125

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2013年第35期132-138,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：农业部规划设计研究院资助项目

摘　　要：为了分析中国粮食增产潜力的影响因素,预测粮食增产潜力,本研究通过对粮食增产潜力影响因素的相关理论分析和数据定量分析可以得出,依靠增加耕地面积提高粮食产量的难度相对较大,提高粮食单产更能提升粮食增产潜力。粮食播种面积的影响因素包括复种指数、土地复垦率等,影响粮食单产的因素主要包括中低产田改造、水资源合理运用、施用化肥、机械化生产、自然灾害、产后损失、物流损失等。最后得出粮食增产因素具有较大程度的提升空间,粮食增产具有较大潜力。In order to determinate these factors and predict the potential growth in grain productivity, this study focused on the elements that potentially affected the growth of grain productivity by undertaking some relevant literatures and using quantitative analysis. Based on the research, we could find that it was very difficult to enhance the grain productivity by land enlargement, but it was easier to increase potential growth by increasing grain output in yield per unit of land. There were several factors that influenced the grain crop acreage including the rate of land reclamation, the index of multiple cropping, etc. Key factors that might affect the grain output in yield per unit could be upgrade in low and medium-yield farmland; water resource reallocation; fertilization; mechanized production in agricultural land; natural disasters; the loss in postharvest and logistics. Finally, it could conclude that these factors might arouse great potential in enhancing grain productivity.

关 键 词：粮食 增产潜力 影响因素 

分 类 号：F325.27[经济管理—产业经济]