中日房地产价格影响因素的比较研究  

The Comparative Study on Influential Factors of Sino-Japan Real Estate Price

作　　者：黄红梅[1] 石柱鲜[2] 李玉梅[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学统计与数学学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130012 [3]吉林大学审计处,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2014年第1期46-56,共11页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"开放经济框架下我国经济周期波动与产业结构调整的关系研究"(10YJC790091);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"基于合成指数对我国通货膨胀影响因素及传导机制的动态分析"(12YJC790184);国家统计局全国统计科学研究重点项目"完善我国房屋销售价格指数的理论与方法研究"(2010LB09)

摘　　要：本文以住宅房价的生命周期模型为基础,对中日两国房地产价格的长短期影响因素进行比较研究。通过构建协整和误差修正模型得出的主要结论为:家庭收入对中日两国的房地产价格都具有关键性的影响作用。长期来看,我国住宅房价的长期收入弹性低于日本,导致这一现象的一个重要原因是两国房地产供给的价格弹性不同。短期来看,中日两国房地产价格的短期波动都具有显著的适应性预期效应,但日本表现为正向影响,而我国表现为负向影响,这表明日本住宅地价短期波动的需求方影响因素更多地表现为投资性需求,而我国住宅房价短期波动的需求方影响因素更多地表现为消费性需求。Based on the life cycle model of residential housing price, this article comparatively studies the long and short - term influential factors affecting Sino - Japan＇s real estate price. Through establishing co - integrated and error correction models, the article concludes that family income has crucial influence on Sino -Japan real estate price. In the long term, the elasticity of long - term income of Chinah residential housing price is lower than that of Japan, which is primarily due to different price elasticity of supply between Sino -Japan＇s real estates. In the short term, both China and Japan＇s real estate price short - term fluctuations have significant effects of adaptive expectation, however, the effect represents positive in Japan while negative in China, which indicates the supply side effects of the short - run fluctuations of real estate price are mainly determined by in vestment demand in Japan while are mainly determined by consumption demand in China.

关 键 词：房地产价格 中日比较 房价的收入弹性 供给的价格弹性 结构性变化 适应性预期 

分 类 号：F299.331.33[经济管理—国民经济]