用近地层温差因子改进广东沿海海雾区域预报  

IMPROVEMENT OF REGIONAL PREDICTION OF MARINE FOG ON GUANGDONG COASTLAND USING THE FACTOR OF TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF THE SURFACE LAYER

作　　者：黄辉军[1] 黄健[1] 刘春霞[1] 毛伟康[1] 毕雪岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所海洋气象联合开放实验室/陆架及深远海气候、资源与环境广东省高等学校重点实验室,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2013年第6期907-914,共8页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家公益性行业专项(GYHY200906008);国家自然科学基金项目(41275025);广东省科技计划项目(2008B030303072);广东省气象局气象科技项目(201003);广东省气象局科技创新团队“海洋气象预警预报技术研究”共同资助

摘　　要：利用2000—2011年的NCEP 1°×1°的再分析资料和2010—2011年的台站海雾观测资料,分析了近地层温差因子(T1 000 hPa-T2 m)与海雾发生的关系;尝试将近地层温差因子作为GRAPES模式的预报变量因子,改进广东沿海海雾区域预报。(1)近地层温差因子与海雾发生有较明确的对应关系:当台站出现海雾时,近地层温差一般处于某一时间段的高值区,近地层温差负值明显减小或转为正值。这是近地层暖湿空气平流逐渐加强的结果,存在海雾发生发展的可能。(2)广东沿海地区暖湿平流的输送具有阶段性和跳跃性,而且是不断增强的;同时,暖湿平流的向北推进与中国沿海海雾自南向北推进的演变过程相一致。(3)GRAPES模式能较好地模拟和实现近地层温差因子,引入该预报变量因子后,海雾区域预报的准确率、Ts和Hss评分都有明显的提高。The relationship between the factor of temperature difference of the surface layer （T1000 hPa-T2 m） and marine fog is analyzed using NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis （2000--2011） and observations （2010--2011）. The factor is derived from the GRAPES model and used to improve the regional prediction of marine fog on Guangdong coastland. （1） There is an explicit matching relationship between this factor and the occurrence of marine fog： While marine fog exists, this factor is always a high value for some specific period of time, and the negative value of this factor decreases significantly or turns positive, suggesting that it is suitable for marine fog to develop. （2） The transportation of warm, moist advection over Guangdong coastland is gradual and shifts abruptly, and gets stronger over time. At the same time, the northward transportation of warm, moist advection is quite consistent with the northward progression of marine fog from south to north along the coastland of China. （3） The GRAPES model proved to be good at simulating and realizing the factor, and the accuracy, threat score and Heidke skill are all improved with the use of the factor.

关 键 词：天气预报 海雾区域预报 广东沿海 GRAPES模式 近地层温差因子 

分 类 号：P436.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]