2004-2012年全国肺结核流行特征及时空聚集性分析  

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering analysis on tuberculosis in China,from 2004 to 2012

作　　者：吴莉[1] 乔方圆[1] 李源晖[1] 朱叶飞[2] 刘文东[2] 

机构地区：[1]皖南医学院公共卫生学院,芜湖241002 [2]江苏省疾病预防控制中心,南京210009

出　　处：《江苏预防医学》2014年第1期19-22,共4页Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：江苏省科教兴卫工程(ZX201109;RC2011085);江苏省预防医学科研项目(YZ201020)

摘　　要：目的描述全国肺结核病的流行病学特征及空间分布规律,为决策者制定防治策略及防范重点、合理分配卫生资源等提供科学依据。方法从中国CDC法定报告传染病数据库获取全国2004-2012年肺结核病的疫情资料,采用描述性流行病学、季节指数法以及时空重排扫描统计方法对数据进行分析。结果累计报告肺结核病9 663 729例,年均报告率为81.46/10万,其中2005年最高,为96.88/10万。10岁以下的婴幼儿及儿童肺结核发病水平最低,年均报告率为5.12/10万;60岁以后迅速上升,年均报告率>150/10万。结核病流行期为1-6月(季节指数均>1),高峰期为1月和3月。全国共检测到7个时空聚集区,且均发生在2005-2008年,其中重症一类聚集覆盖地区为重庆、贵州及广西。结论中老年为结核病重点防治人群;东部、中部、西部地区肺结核病流行强度不同,但各地区该病季节性变化规律基本相同。Objective To describe national epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal pattern of tuberculosis; to provide scientific basis for decision makers on developing rational prevention and control strategies and optimizing the allocation of resources. Methods Case data of TB in China from 2004 to 2012 were downloaded from the Chinese National Infectious Disease Reporting System. Descriptive epidemiological analysis, season index method and retrospective space-time scan statis-tics were employed for comprehensive analysis. Results A total of 9 663 729 cases were reported from 2004 to 2012,with an annual incidence of 81.46 per 100 000, the annual incidence of 2005 ranked top 1 （96.88 per 100 000）. The incidence of Infants and children ≤10 years old were lowest （5. 12 per 100 000）; the incidence increased quickly after age of 60（〉150 per 100 000）. The epidemic period was from January to June（season index〉l）, peaks occurred in January and March. Totally 7 spa-tio-temporal clusters were detected nationally, all occurred in the period of 2005-2008, the clustering area of severe cases were Chongqing, Guizhou and Guangxi. Conclusion Middle aged and old people are key target groups for TB; TB epidemic intensity in eastern, central and western regions are different, but share similar seasonal patterns.

关 键 词：肺结核 流行特征 季节指数 时空聚集性 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学]