基于灰色关联分析的相似洪水动态展延方法  

Dynamic Extending Approach of Similar Flood Based on Gray Correlation Analysis

作　　者：吴业楠 钟平安[1,2] 赵云发[3] 万新宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,南京210098 [3]中国长江三峡集团公司,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2014年第1期126-130,共5页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：973计划项目(2013CB036406);国家自然科学基金项目(51179044);全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(973计划)(2010CB951102)

摘　　要：在不能高精度预测后续洪水的现状下,对历史暴雨洪水信息进行挖掘,对降低水库防洪调度风险具有现实意义。制定将历史洪水标准化的方法,并根据暴雨洪水形成机制和实时信息的易获取性,筛选出能反映洪水特征的指标体系,并基于灰色关联分析原理构建了相似洪水动态识别办法和相似洪水展延实时洪水预报过程的展延效果评价方法。池潭水库历史暴雨洪水模拟结果表明提出的洪水展延方法对后续来水估计的总有效率高,效果显著,该方法应用效果、适应性、稳定性均较好。Under the current conditions that the subsequent flood cannot be predicted with high accuracy, the stucly on me nlstor- ical storm flood information is important as it may provide valuable information to reduce the risk of reservoir flood control. In this paper, we developed a method to standardize the historical flood and selected the index system to reseer the flood character- istics on the basis of the formation mechanism of storm flood and available real-time information. Based on the gray correlation analysis theory, a dynamic identification approach of similar flood and an evaluation method of the extending effects of real-time flood forecasting process of similar flood were developed. The methods were applied to simulate the storm flood in the Chitan reservoir, which showed that the flood extending method has high efficiency to estimate the subsequent flood. Overall, the meth- od is applicable, adaptable, and stable.

关 键 词：水库 防洪调度 洪水相似性 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]