PM2.5的时间分布与演变扩散研究  

The research of PM2.5's time distribution and evolution of diffusion

作　　者：卢鹏[1] 何杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学峨眉校区基础课部,四川峨眉614202 [2]西南交通大学土木工程学院,成都610031

出　　处：《西南民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第1期66-71,共6页Journal of Southwest Minzu University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：最初利用时间序列——指数平滑法来分析PM2.5的时间分布情况.考虑到在分析过程中不确定PM2.5与时间之间存在怎样的关系,所以分别建立了一次、二次及三次指数平滑模型,通过对比分析最终确定PM2.5与时间的具体关系.为了更好的控制和治理PM2.5污染物,则需要对其扩散规律进行分析,基于此,本文建立了基于高斯扩散模型的PM2.5污染物扩散模型,建模过程中,首先建立了大气稳定状态下的基本模型,然后在此基础上又进一步建立了能够反映风速、温度以及湿度对PM2.5扩散产生影响的基本模型,具有一定的适用性.This article uses time series analysis---the exp0nential smoothing method to analyze the time distribution of PM2.5. Considering the uncertainty relationship between PM2.5 and time in the process of analysis, primary, secondary and three exponential smoothing models are established respectively. Through the comparison and analysis, the relationship between PM2.5 and time is determined eventually. For the purpose of better control and governance of PM2.5 pollution, it is necessary to analyze its dispersion characteristics. Based on this, this paper establishes the PM2.5 pollutant diffusion model fbundation of Gaussian diffusion model. During the process of modeling, the basic model of atmospheric stability condition is established and further, a model is established that can reflect wind speed, temperature and humidity on the basic model of PM2.5 diffusion effects, which has a certain applicability.

关 键 词：PM2 5 时间分布 指数平滑法 高斯扩散 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]