集对分析理论在风电场风速区间预测中的应用  

Application of Set Pair Analysis in Wind Speed Interval Prediction for Wind Farms

作　　者：郭钰锋[1] 孙頔[2] 于继来[1] 于达仁[1] 郭涛[3] 马呈霞[3] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学电气工程及自动化学院,黑龙江省哈尔滨市150001 [2]环境保护部核与辐射安全中心,北京市100082 [3]甘肃电力科学研究院,甘肃省兰州市730050

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2014年第2期6-11,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2011AA05A105);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51107014);国家电网公司大电网重大专项资助项目(SGCC-MPLG015-2012)~~

摘　　要：风力发电的出力直接取决于风速,因此需要提高风速的预测精度。考虑到风速点预测精度的提高有较难克服的瓶颈,文中提出一种针对风速的区间预测方法,将集对分析原理引入风速的区间预测中,利用风向、温度、气压、湿度等影响因素的训练数据,并考虑风速点预测的结果误差分布及风速变化率的影响,确定未来某时间段内风速的预测值所属的分类集合,以该分类集合的上下限作为风速预测区间的上下限,从而实现了风速的区间预测。以国内某风电场的数据进行训练和预测,验证了基于集对分析理论的风速区间预测方法的有效性,同时所提方法的预测结果可以用于风电场功率预测。Wind farm output power is directly depended on the wind speed,and it is necessary to improve the prediction accuracy of the wind speed. Taking the difficulty of improving the wind speed point forecast accuracy into account,this paper presents a method for wind speed interval prediction based on the set pair analysis theory. This method uses the training data of wind direction,temperature,pressure,humidity,etc.,which are the influential factors of wind speed. On the other hand,by considering the error distribution of the wind speed point forecast and the change rate of wind speed,the classified collection which the predictive value of the wind speed in a certain period in the future belongs to is determined. The upper and lower limits of the classified collection are taken as the upper and lower limits of the wind speed prediction interval,thus the wind speed interval prediction is realized. By using the training and prediction data that come from a wind farm in China,the effectiveness of the wind speed interval prediction based on the set pair analysis theory is verified. In fact,the proposed method can also be used for wind power prediction.

关 键 词：风力发电 集对分析 风速预测 区间预测 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]