日元升值引致资产价格泡沫的历史教训与借鉴  

Asset Price Bubble Caused by JPY Revaluation: Historical Lessons and Comparative References

作　　者：刘刚[1] 谷瑜 

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学金融学院 [2]广东财经大学

出　　处：《亚太经济》2014年第1期40-45,共6页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：邹新月教授主持的国家自然科学基金项目“羊群行为视角下商业银行信贷传导机制及其效应研究”(71073031);刘刚教授主持的国家社会科学基金项目“金融危机后人民币汇率大国博弈及中国对策研究”(11CGJ009);黄正新教授主持的国家社会科学基金项目“通货膨胀预期陷阱视角下货币政策预期管理研究”(13BJL025);广东财经大学金融市场投融资研究科研创新团队的资助

摘　　要：日元升值通过资本流动与政策组合渠道传导至货币市场,导致低利率与宽松的货币流动性,然后再由货币市场传导到资产市场,造成以股票与房地产为代表的资产价格急剧上涨乃至泡沫危机。实证研究显示,日元升值与资产价格泡沫的产生与破灭遵循相同的传导途径,这对面临人民币长期升值压力与房地产价格居高不下的当前中国经济具有很强的启迪。Shares and real estates were prone to be a carrier of asset price bubble owing to their internal value instability and uncertainty, while the JPY sharp revaluation in the 1960s played an intensified role in this process. First, JPY revaluation was channeled to money market by capital mobility and policy mix, which led to low interest rate and ease money liquidity, then, it was transmitted to capital market, which caused the sharp rise of asset price and even bubble crisis represented by shares and real estates. The empirical results also showed that JPY revaluation and the appearance and evaporation of real estate price bubble followed the same transmission channels. Thus, it has huge enlightenment for the current Chinese economy faced by long-term RMB reevaluation pressure and sharp rise of real estate prices.

关 键 词：本币升值 资产价格上涨 泡沫经济 

分 类 号：F830.7[经济管理—金融学]