河南能源消费与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于误差修正模型  

An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Henan Province Based on Vector Error Correction Model

作　　者：彭俊杰[1] 周志敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南省社会科学院,河南郑州450002 [2]郑州一中经开区实验学校,河南郑州450016

出　　处：《广东石油化工学院学报》2013年第6期80-83,87,共5页Journal of Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(11CJY057);河南省社会科学院院级课题(2013C25;2013D16)

摘　　要：基于误差修正模型,利用协整分析及Granger因果关系检验方法,对河南省1978—2011年能源消费总量和国民生产总值之间的关系进行实证分析。研究发现,改革开放以来河南省能源消费与经济增长之间具有长期的协整关系,且存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向Granger因果关系,能源消费每增加1个百分点,会带来GDP增加4.29个百分点。Co-integration test and Granger causality analysis were adapted in the VEC model to investigate the relationship between energy consumption and economy growth in 1978-2011 in Henan Province .It is found that there exists a long -run co -integration relationship between them as well as a unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to economy growth over the period 1978 -2011 .It suggests that when the energy consumption increased by 1% ,the GDP will increase by 4 .29% .

关 键 词：河南省 能源消费 经济增长 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]