国际石油价格对我国工业经济冲击的实证分析  

An Empirical Study of International Oil Prices' Impact on China's Industrial Economy

作　　者：聂高辉[1] 陈娜[1] 杨坤[2] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学信息管理学院,江西南昌330032 [2]中国联通安徽省分公司,安徽合肥230061

出　　处：《金融教育研究》2013年第6期58-64,88,共8页Research of Finance and Education

摘　　要：我国的经济迅速崛起导致我国成为世界上石油进口和消费大国,而我国的石油储量又是贫瘠的,因此,我国经济发展必然要受到国际石油价格波动的影响。为此,文章以美国西德克萨斯轻质原油(West Taxas Intermediate Crude Oil)WTI石油价格作为国际石油价格的代表,选取1991-2011年我国工业固定资产投资率、工业产出增加值、工业就业人数以及WTI石油价格数据,构建了VAR(2)模型,并由此进行脉冲响应和方差分析。结果显示:国际石油价格对工业固定资产投资率和工业产出增加值在短期内有先抑制后拉动的作用,而在长期内作用则不明显。这表明国际石油价格波动对我国工业经济发展沿着健康平稳、合意的速度发展目标具有负面作用。China＇ s rapid economic rising leads to Chinese becoming the world＇ s leading oil importing and con- suming country ,while China＇ s oil reserves is barren ,so China＇ s economic development must be subject to interna- tional oil price fluctuations. Therefore, this paper selects Chinh＇ s industrial fixed assets investment rate, increase in industrial output value,industrial employment mad WTI oil price data over the period of 1991 to 2011 to construct VAR（2） model based on the U. S. West Texas light crude oil （Wesl Taxas Intermediate Crude Oil）WTI oil price as the representatives of international oil prices, and thus analyses the impulse response and variance. The major con- clusions are as follows：in the slaort term,the effects of international oil prices on the industrial fixed assets invest- ment rate and the increase in industrial output Value exhibits pulling after first inhibiting. And then, in the long term,effect is not obvious. This indicates that the international oil price fluctuations have a negative effect on the healthy and desirable development pace of China＇ s industrial economy.

关 键 词：国际石油价格 中国工业经济 VAR模型 

分 类 号：G642[文化科学—高等教育学]