福州市霾天气大气结构分析及其预报研究  

Atmospheric Structure and Forecasting of Haze in Fuzhou

作　　者：林文[1] 林长城[1] 王宏[1] 余永江[1] 陈彬彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省气象科学研究所,福建福州350001

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2013年第12期38-43,共6页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：环保部公益性行业科研专项(2010467004):海峡西岸城市群大气复合污染成因及其减排和管理机制研究;福建省科技厅重点项目(2012Y0009):城市气象环境灾害预警预报技术研究

摘　　要：福州为福建省霾天气高发区之一。文章利用2006-2010年历史探空数据以及福州站地面观测资料中常规数据,结合天气形势,开展基于V-3θ方法的福州霾低能见度天气预报研究,研究结果表明:当福州处于暖区辐合内部时霾发生率最高,其次是变性冷高压和高空槽,而低涡切变及台风和热带辐合带则不易出现霾;V-3θ结构图上判断霾天气发生的主要要素为厚度超过25 hPa的逆温层及其上下的滚流特征、中低层非均匀结构以及暖层云;预判霾天气消散的大气结构特征主要为风场的变化,分别为整层顺滚流结构和整层逆滚流结构;根据上述要素的特征及变化趋势对2011年针对福州市霾天气进行预报检验,取得一定的预报效果,霾日的预报准确率达77%。Fuzhou is a high happening area of haze in Fujian Province. V-30 structure method based on historical radiosonde data and routine ground measuring data from 2006 to 2010 with synoptic situation was used in this research to forecast the haze in Fuzhou. Results indicated that the probability of haze happening is the highest when Fuzhou is controlled by warm convergent zone, followed by transformed cold high or upper trough, and the lowest by low-vortex shear and typhoon. The main factors of V-30 diagrams for haze forecasting are inversion layer whose thickness is larger than 25 hPa,atmospheric roll-flow, heterogeneous structure in middle or low level and inversion cloud. And the factor of haze dissipation is variation of roll-flow. These characters and variations are used for verification of haze forecasting of Fuzhou in 2011 ,with veracity as 77%.

关 键 词：霾 福州 V3θ 预报 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P427.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]