基于主成分分析的北部湾冬季大风预报方法研究  

Study on the prediction methods of winter gale base on principal component analysis method in Beibu Gulf

作　　者：黄海平[1] 陈伟斌[2] 黄海洪[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西教育学院数学与计算机科学系,广西南宁530022 [2]广西气象台,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《海洋预报》2013年第6期28-31,共4页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：广西科学研究与技术开发计划项目(桂科攻1298005-3)

摘　　要：根据天气动力学原理,得出影响北部湾大风的三大类因子,即气压梯度、气温梯度及高空引导风。以多年的经验,通过配料,按这三类形成大风预报因子群。利用主成分分析方法,把原来多指标转化为少数几个相互独立的综合指标。在各类因子指标标准化后,基于主成分分析得出大风预报综合指数。检验结果表明,北部湾大风风速与大风预报综合指数(前24 h)有很好的对应关系,走势与峰谷值基本对应,可见综合指数对大风的预报有着较好指示意义。可把综合指数量值30作为预报北部湾大风的起报阈值,其对大风的有无预报具有较好的参考价值,是对天气概念模型预报方法定量化配料的一种有益探讨。According to synoptic dynamics principles,three types of factors that affect the winter gale in Beibu gulf are determined,including pressure gradient,temperature gradient and high-altitude steering wind.With years of experience,factor groups are determined according to the three types of factors.The original multi indexes are transited into some mutually independent comprehensive indexes using the principal component analysis method.With the standardized indexes,the comprehensive index of gale prediction was obtained based on principal component analysis.The test results show that the measured wind speed of gale in Beibu gulf highly correspond with the comprehensive indexes （within 24hours）,and the trend substantially correspond to the peak val ues,which indicates that the comprehensive index is with great value when it comes to gale forecasting.As to Beibu Gulf area,the comprehensive index 30 is a preferred threshold value,and it can be used as a valuable attempt to quantify the synoptic models prediction methods.

关 键 词：北部湾冬季大风 主成分分析 配料预报方法 大风预报综合指数 

分 类 号：P732.4[天文地球—海洋科学]