中国华北地区冬季异常冷暖的变化特征及影响因子分析  

Variation characteristics of abnormal cold and warm winters in North China and their impact factors

作　　者：李培[1] 任广成[2] 蔡开华[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军海军海洋水文气象中心 [2]中国人民解放军96631部队

出　　处：《海洋预报》2013年第6期58-66,共9页Marine Forecasts

摘　　要：利用1951—2009年华北地区9个代表站温度资料,北半球海平面气压场、500 hPa高度场和北太平洋海温场资料及相关环流特征指数资料,通过合成分析、对比分析和相关分析等方法,研究了华北地区冬季温度的异常变化和成因及其与前期大气环流和海温场的遥相关联系。发现:华北地区冬季温度具有明显的年代际气候变化特征;冬季异常冷暖年份,北半球海平面气压距平场和500 hPa高度距平场分布具有明显不同;蒙古高压强弱变化不仅对华北地区同期冬季温度变化具有显著影响,而且在其前期春、秋季节的消退和建立过程中,其强弱变化对华北地区冬季温度变化还具有很好的预测指示意义;前期夏季北太平洋高压强度,春季西太平洋副高、夏季中太平洋副高、秋季南海副高活动影响关键区500 hPa高度及春季西风漂流区海温与华北地区冬季温度分别存在着很好的相关关系;这些高相关海气因子可直接用于华北地区冬季温度趋势预测。Based on the temperature data from nine stations in North China during 1951-2009,sea surface pressure data in the north hemisphere,500hPa geopotential height,sea surface temperature （SST） data,and circulation character index data,using methods of composite analysis,comparison analysis and relation analysis,this paper has analyzed the abnormal variations of winter temperature in North China and its reason and the relationship between previous air circulation and SST.The results show obvious decadal climate variations of the winter air temperature in North China.In years with extraordinary cold and warm winters,the sea surface pressure departure and the 500hPa geopotential height departure in the North hemisphere are quite different.The intensity change of Mongolian high has an significant impact on the winter temperature variation over the corresponding period in north China,but also has a good predictive implication on the winter temperature change during the decaying and building process of the former spring and autumn.The intensity of summer North Pacific high,spring West Pacific subtropical high,summer Middle Pacific subtropical high,the 500hPa geopotential height in the influenced key area of autumn South China sea subtropical high,and the SST of spring west wind circulation all have good correlations with the winter air temperature in North China,respectively.These factors could be directly used in the winter temperature prediction in the North China area.

关 键 词：华北地区 冬季冷暖 变化特征 影响因子 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]