基于影响图理论的地铁车辆走行系统安全评估方法研究  

Influence Diagram Theory-based Research on Subway Vehicle Running Gear Safety Assessment Methodology

作　　者：李熙[1,2] 张元[2] 贾利民[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验,北京100044 [2]北京市地铁运营有限公司地铁运营技术研发中心,北京102208

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2013年第11期43-47,共5页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展("863")计划课题(2011AA110506);北京市地铁运营有限公司资助项目(2012000510000002)

摘　　要：为分析、识别地铁车辆运营过程中对走行系统影响较大的外部因素,采用概率影响图方法,从人员组织及管理、环境、基础设施、运营维护等方面对车辆走行系统进行安全性分析。采用改进熵权法处理概率影响图中的专家数据,并以实例验证该方法的可行性与准确性。结果表明:各类人员专业技能不足是影响地铁车辆尤其是走行系统安全性最重要的外部因素,责任心是第二大影响因素。此外,随着城市地铁的快速发展,环境变化、设备维护检修、备品备件质量及线路条件等也亟需得到相关部门的重视。External factors such as organization, management, environment, infrastructure, operation and maintenance of subway vehicle running system operation were taken as the research objects, a safety assessment model of subway vehicle running gear was built by means of improved probabilistie influence diagram. Expert data were analyzed using an improved entropy weight method, which improved the targeting and efficiency of operations. Analysis result shows that a shortage of skills and a shortage of sense of responsibility are the most important external factors affecting subway vehicle running system safety operation, which should be paid enough attention, and that with the rapid development of subway, environmental changes, vehicle maintenance, spare parts, line conditions and so on should be paid more attention by the relevant departments.

关 键 词：影响图 车辆走行系统 外部因素 熵权法 安全评估 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]