道路交通安全统计生命价值评价研究——基于单边界和双边界二分式条件价值法  

Assessing Value of a Statistical Life in Road Traffic Safety by Contingent Value Method with Single and Double Bounded Dichotomy

作　　者：刘文歌[1] 赵胜川[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学经济管理学院 [2]大连理工大学交通运输学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2013年第11期138-144,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(50978046)

摘　　要：为提高道路交通安全统计生命价值(VOSL)评估的精确性和可靠性,比较研究单边界二分式和双边界二分式条件价值法(CVM)。采用单边界与双边界二分式2种格式设计调查问卷,利用2项Logit(BL)和多项Logit(MNL)模型构建VOSL评价模型。以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象实施交通意向调查,根据调查数据进行模型参数标定和显著性检验,最终获得VOSL评估值,并分析其影响因素。结果表明:双边界二分式VOSL评价模型命中率更高,其支付意愿(WTP)估计的置信区间范围更小,具有更高的精确性;双边界二分式VOSL评估值为59.8万元,其评估结果更为合理;个人驾龄、学历和家庭月收入3大因素对道路交通安全VOSL影响显著。In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of assessment of VOSL in road traffic safety, a comparison was made between CVM with single bounded dichotomy and that with double bounded dichotomy. Questionnaires were designed by using single and double bounded dichotomous formats. VOSL models were built based on BL model and MNL model. A survey was carried out regarding Dalian private drivers as respondents, then parameters were calibrated and significance tests were carried out according to stated preference data. Finally, VOSL was estimated and factors affecting it were analyzed. The study results show that hit ratio of VOSL model based on double bounded dichotomy is higher and its confidence interval of WTP estimates is narrower. VOSL model based on double bounded dichotomy has a higher accuracy and its evaluation result is 598 thousands RMB, which is more reasonable. Moreover, VOSL in road traffic safety is significantly influenced by three factors that are monthly family income, traffic experience and education.

关 键 词：道路交通安全 统计生命价值(VOSL) 二分式问卷格式 条件价值法(CVM) 2项Logit(BL) 多项Logit(MNL) 

分 类 号：X915.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]