基于系统动力学仿真模型开发区土地集约利用扩展潜力预测——以南昌经济技术开发区为例  

Prediction of Expand Potential of Land Intensive Use Based on System Dynamics Simulation Model in Development Zone——A Case Study of the Nanchang Economic and Technological Development Zone

作　　者：江立武[1] 余敦[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院,江西南昌330045

出　　处：《江西农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第4期545-550,共6页Journal of Jianxi Agricultural University :Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：江西省教育厅科技计划项目(GJJ13265)

摘　　要：预测开发区土地集约利用扩展潜力对掌握开发区土地利用平面拓展空间和转变开发区土地利用方式具有重要作用。以SD仿真模型为工具,建立了开发区土地集约利用扩展潜力预测动态仿真模型,并对南昌经济技术开发区土地集约利用拓展潜力进行了预测。研究表明,应用SD仿真模型预测开发区土地集约利用拓展潜力是可行的,其潜力预测结果对促进开发区土地节约集约用地和制定土地集约利用政策措施都具有一定的参考价值。It is important to grasp plane expand space and change land use mode pend potential of land intensive use in Development Zone.This paper used SD （ system that predicting the ex- dynamics） simulation model to establish dynamic simulation model of expend potential prediction of land intensive use in Develop- ment Zone,and predicted expend potential of the Nanchang Economic and Technological Development Zone. Studies have shown that it is feasible to apply SD simulation model to predict expend use in Development Zone, and the results of prediction have a certain reference value sive use and formulationg policies and measures in Development Zone. potential of land intensive for promoting land inten-

关 键 词：系统动力学 仿真模型 扩展潜力 预测 

分 类 号：F291.3[经济管理—国民经济]