全球及中国区域气候变化预估研究主要进展简述  

Major Progress of Global and China Regional Climate Change Projection

作　　者：翟颖佳[1,2] 李耀辉[2] 陈玉华[3] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [3]宁夏气象信息中心,宁夏银川750002

出　　处：《干旱气象》2013年第4期803-813,共11页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项"多时间尺度干旱监测预警;评估技术研究"(GYHY201006023);国家自然基金项目"西北地区跨季强干旱事件的形成机理研究"(41175081)共同资助

摘　　要：自IPCC评估报告发表以来,气候模式对未来气候变化的预估成为人们重视的问题。因此,本文回顾了IPCC前4次报告对全球未来气候变化预估的主要结论,并对全球及区域气候模式对中国地区的模拟和预估结果进行了分类总结,得出区域气候模式由于分辨率更高、对特殊地形的模拟能力更强,因此比全球气候模式的模拟和预估结果更准确;同时讨论了目前存在的问题及今后研究的方向。Since the IPCC assessment reports were published, the prediction of climate models for future climate change has been a con- cerned problem. Therefore, this paper reviewed the main conclusions of the four previous IPCC reports on global climate change in the future, and summarized the simulation and prediction results of the global and regional climate models for China, and reached the con- clusion that the simulation and prediction results of regional climate models were more accurate due to the higher resolution and better simulating capabilities for special terrain compared with the global climate models. Meanwhile, this paper discussed the current prob- lems and the future researching＇directions of the climate models.

关 键 词：IPCC 中国地区 气候模式 气温 降水 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]