2002～2011年河北辛集气温变化与蛋鸡生产情况调查分析  

Investigation of Atmospheric Temperature Changes and Poultry Production in Xinji City,Hebei Province during 2002～2011

作　　者：王少璞[1] 董晓芳[1] 佟建明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院北京畜牧兽医研究所,北京100193

出　　处：《家畜生态学报》2013年第12期61-67,共7页Journal of Domestic Animal Ecology

基　　金：公益性行业(农业)科研专项(200903003);国家蛋鸡产业技术体系建设专项(CARS-41-K16)

摘　　要：通过收集河北省辛集地区2002～2011年的气温资料和蛋鸡生产资料,利用相关和回归统计方法对二者进行相关和回归分析,研究该地区10年气温变化情况对蛋鸡生产的影响。结果表明,辛集地区年平均气温在13.5～14.5℃之间波动,月均最高气温为27.6℃,月均最低气温为-1.6℃;蛋鸡年平均产蛋量从2002年的5.10kg上升到2011年的8.57kg,同比增长68.04%;利用相关分析模型和回归分析模型发现,年平均气温、高温天气、低温天气与蛋鸡年平均产蛋量的相关系数分别为-0.287、0.152、0.388,一次回归决定系数分别为0.0821、0.0230、0.1502,二次回归决定系数分别为0.1113、0.4128、0.1861。本研究结果表明,在集约化和规模化养殖过程中,河北辛集地区气温对蛋鸡生产性能仍有一定的影响,二者呈负相关关系(r=-0.287)。To investigate and analyze the relationship between atmospheric temperature and poultry production from 2002 to 2011 in Xinji City of Hebei province, meteorological data and poultry production data between 2002 and 2011 were collected and examined through correlation analysis and regression anylasis. The results showed that the annual avaerage temperature fluctuated between 13. 5 ℃ and 14. 5 ℃, and the highest and lowest monthly average temperature were 27.6 ℃, -1.6 ℃ respectively. The egg production of per laying hen was increased by 68.04 % from 5.10 kg in 2002 to 8.57 kg in 2011. Besides, the coefficient of correlation between annual average temperature, high temperature, low temperature and egg production were -0. 287, 0. 152, 0. 388 respectively. The coefficient of determination in linear regression model were 0. 0821, 0. 0230, 0. 1502 respectively, and 0. 1113, 0. 4128, o. 1861 in polynomial regression respectively, The result of the correlation and multiple regression analysis reveal that a negative relationship exists between the atmospheric temperature and egg production.

关 键 词：气温变化 蛋鸡生产 相关分析 回归分析 

分 类 号：S811.6[农业科学—畜牧学]