产业链视角下的纺织业景气评价与预警研究——以浙江省为例  

A Study on Prosperity Evaluation and Early-warning System of Zhejiang Textile Industry: A View from Industry Chains

作　　者：肖欢明[1] 苏为华[2] 陈骥[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学统计与数学学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]浙江财经大学数学与统计学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《财经论丛》2014年第1期16-21,共6页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(Y6110777;LQ12G03010);浙江省社会科学界联合会研究基金资助项目(2012N084)

摘　　要：纺织业作为我国的传统优势行业,在国民经济发展中占有重要的地位,因此对纺织行业运行状况进行实时监测并建立有效的预警体系具有十分重要的现实意义。但既有研究对纺织业的景气评价尚无提及,纺织业的预警体系尚未建立。本文从产业链的视角构建纺织业景气评价指标体系和预警系统,并以浙江省纺织业为例,对其进行综合预警。As a traditional industry that possesses an advantage in the international market, the textile industry in China plays an important role in China＇ s economic growth. It is significant to monitor the economic situation of the textile industry and establish an effective early-warning system. However, the existing research has little reference to the prosperity evalua- tion, and an early-warning system is not yet in place for the textile industry. This paper proposes a series of indicators to eval- uate the prosperity of Zhejiang textile industry and build up a corresponding early-warning system for it.

关 键 词：纺织业 景气指数 合成指数 预警系统 

分 类 号：F222.31[经济管理—国民经济]