我国国际资本流动突然中断风险与防范  

Identification and Prevention of Sudden Stop Risks of International Capital Flow in China

作　　者：郑璇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《财经论丛》2014年第1期42-48,共7页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：湖南省哲学社会科学基金资助项目(12YBB119)

摘　　要：国际资本流动突然中断是新兴市场国家金融开放进程中面临的重要风险。本文基于1980-2012年23个新兴市场国家的非平衡面板数据,在运用面板Probit模型考察国际资本流动突然中断驱动因素的基础上,评估与识别我国国际资本流动突然中断风险,结果发现:GDP增长率、通胀率、经常账户、金融开放、国内外利差、货币错配及风险传染等因素显著影响突然中断的发生概率;近年我国国际资本流动突然中断风险较小,但存在重要风险来源,由此提出我国防范国际资本流动突然中断的政策建议。Sudden stops of international capital flow are an important risk faced by emerging market economies in their process of financial opening. This article utilizes an unbalanced sample data of 23 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2012 to investigate the driving factors of sudden stops, assess the risks, and identify risk origins through the panel data probit model. Factors that are found to significantly affect the probability of sudden stops are GDP growth rate, inflation rate, current account, financial openness, interest rate spreads, currency mismatch and risk contagion. The sudden stop risk in China re- mains small in recent years, but there exist important risk sources. Therefore, some policy recommendations are proposed in the article to guard against sudden stops in China.

关 键 词：国际资本流动突然中断 风险识别 面板Probit模型 

分 类 号：F831.7[经济管理—金融学]